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Tamil Nadu Political Scenario 2021.

  • The current political scenario is it is Stalin vs others and DMK definitely has an edge. Still, a year is left for assembly elections in TN, a year is definitely a very long time in politics. DMK front got 53 percent of votes in 2019 LS polls, managed to capture 14 districts in Rural Local body polls, has committed cadres, maintained a minimum 25 percent of votes even in elections where they faced debacle and has a loyal vote bank. Despite so many plus, why does DMK needs the help of Prasanth Kishore? The answer is DMK fears the repeat of 1967. In 1967, the mighty INC led by Kamraj was successfully defeated by an alliance of DMK, Rajaji, Muslim league, AIFB, and NTK. All these parties had huge ideological differences Rajaji is an orthodox Brahmin, AIFB was led by Mookiah thevar who was a follower of Muthuramalinga Thevar, a staunch Nationalist and NTK led by Aditanar believed in Tamil Nationalism. They all were united by a single point Anti-Kamraj/Anti-congress. Today, Rajini is going to take DMK head-on and his recent speeches suggest that he sees DMK as an opponent, and ADMK is not in the picture. The 2021 scenario would be Stalin vs Rajini.
  • DMK is rattled because of its Anti-Hindu Image. This narrative has many takers now. DMK channels like Kaliagnar TV doesn’t wish Hindus on Hindu festivals, during the festival season they put special shows and refer it as “Holiday special shows “ instead of the festival name. This is just a tip iceberg how DMK hates Hindus. DMK proudly says it follows the ideology of Periyar, then why deny that he hit Hindu gods with slippers? Today, MK Stalin says DMK is not Anti-Hindu fearing Hindu consolidation would go against DMK.
  • Dominant castes like Vanniyars, Thevars, and Gounders are not with DMK now. In Southern TN, the politically significant Devendra kulla vellalars who are classified in the SC list are becoming the flag bearers of Hindutva(Not BJP). Smaller communities through supported DMK in large numbers have very little representation and have absolutely no political power despite being spread out across TN. All the said communities would rally behind Rajini and they have little hopes on ADMK. PMK and AMMK are inching closer to Rajini who have a high representation of Vanniyars and thevars respectively.
  • If Stalin is Caste neutral, then Rajini is Super Caste neutral. And without allying with BJP, Rajini can still get the votes of core Hindu voters.
  • DMK is doing anti-Modi politics on all the occasion. During LS, their strategy of opposing Modi is justified, what is the need to do that even in Rural body polls? By opposing Modi right from Panchayath to Parliament is only to appease minorities, this might backfire a lot for DMK.
  • In TN, there is always a section of people who are Anti-DMK, these people support a party that stops DMK. They supported Congress even when they lost, they shifted in mass to ADMK to stop DMK. Among core voters of a party, there exist few who support a party only to stop the other, this segment will also rally behind Rajini.
  • Stalin recently said that media is giving someone much of importance to Rajini. Because, whatever Rajini speaks, it becomes viral and trend. Rajini has Charisma and he believes there is a political vacuum in the state. TN votes on a Leadership basis and Rajini with his charisma can take on well oiled DMK.
  • Rajini is likely to start his own outfit just 8 months before the polls. And election would be a Rajini centric one. If Rajini becomes the taking point, how DMK will counter it?
  • Some of the DMK allies like Congress and vck are also not happy with DMK. Though Azhagiri state president of Congress condemned Rajini on his remarks on Periyar but, still some leaders of Congress like Thirunavvukarassu( Trichy MP), kushbhu have a soft corner for Rajini. There is a lobby in Congress that wants to align with Rajini, if Rajini aligns with BJP, then it will have some impact in other southern states too. VCK was given very less representation in Rural local body polls, VCK didn’t realize how Stalin spoke for separate reservation for Vanniyars and some of the District secretaries of DMK who are from dominant caste doesn’t want VCK to be a part of DMK alliance. VCK might go alone in 2021.
  • DMK winning TN in 2021 looks harder but definitely not impossible. Their victory isn’t coming that easily.

Jai Hind .

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