In Bengal, BJP aligned with TMC in Past, but after 2004 Lok Sabha polls they have contested alone. In 2009 LS polls, BJP secured just 6.4 percent of votes in Bengal. In 2014, Due to the Namo wave, BJP improved its position by securing 2 seats and polling 17 percentage of votes. In 2019, BJP gave their best performance in Bengal by winning 18 LS seats and polled whopping 40 Percentage of votes. In Kerala too, BJP is steadily increasing the vote share, however, the demographics of Kerala makes it hard for the BJP to crack. How BJP has consolidated its position in these two relatively weaker states? In these two states, BJP was the necessary third alternative and didn’t do the mistake of being a pillion rider. If BJP has to improve its position in TN, it has to become the necessary third alternative. In every election in TN, the third front polls 10–12 percentage of votes, which means the people are not hesitant to vote for the third alternative, provided they remain so. People had high hopes on MDMK in 1996 and MDMK did secure 6 percentage of votes in debut election, later, MDMK did the mistake of aligning with both the Dravidian parties and hence become irrelevant. PMK did speak of being a necessary third alternative, but cannot win the trust of Non-Vaniyars. TN people had high hopes on DMDK, they polled whopping 8 percent in 2006, 10 Percent in 2009 LS polls and their best performance was in 2011 by winning 39 seats and becoming the principal opposition party, due to many strategic blunders they have become irrelevant today.
- It should project itself as the necessary third alternative to both the Dravidian parties. Though this stand is very hard and BJP would be mercilessly trolled to be the competitor of NOTA, but in the long run, it will reap benefits for the BJP. In 2021, TN election would be historic, as the contest is between DMK Vs Rajini. DMK will have a set of alliance partners and PMK, TTV (AMMK), MNM(Likely?), and Congress (Unlikely right now, but, chances are there?) will be with Rajini. Even Rajini doesn’t prefer BJP as Rajini is bound to get Hindu votes without BJP. So, in this case, BJP would be with current partner ADMK and DMK option is also not possible at present. ADMK currently has a loyal vote bank of Dominant castes and If BJP has to grow it should be at the expense of ADMK. A weaker ADMK is good for BJP. Even by continuing the alliance both BJP and ADMK are likely to be routed. So let BJP contest alone and test its strength. If it retains the three percent of votes it’s a great achievement.
- DMK has a solid vote bank of Minorities, Linguistic minorities (due to the rise of Tamil nationalism), and Dalits (Parayars in Northern TN). ADMK has the support of Gounders in western TN, Vanniyars in Northern TN (due to PMK), and some thevar votes in Southern TN. The above-mentioned communities only have political powers. BJP should give more preference to smaller communities like Mutharaiyars, Konars, Vannar, Udayar, Navithar, Kaigollar, Solliya Vellalars, Devendra Kulla Vellalrs, and by Hindutva card should attract other Hindu communities. Positive Social justice is the need of the hour in TN. The said communities are cheated in the name of social justice by Dravidian parties.
- Tamils generally vote for leaders not for parties or ideologies. BJP in TN should groom a leader who connects with Tamils. In Lok Sabha polls too, the Modi image did help BJP to some extent in TN. In 2014, NDA got 17.5 percent of votes, it’s due to the leadership of Modi. When two stalwarts, Jaya and Karuna were alive, the contest was Jaya vs Karuna in almost 234 constituencies. A strong leader with good people skills and organizational abilities is needed in TN BJP.
- As a well-wisher and supporter of BJP in TN. In recent times, there is a slight increase in support for Hindutva in TN. The blatant minority appeasement politics of DMK, anti-Hindu narrative by Fringe groups have made Hindus frustrated. Recently, Vaiko said we should stop mocking Hinduism, otherwise, it will benefit BJP. it is only BJP supporters who are fighting the ideological war on TV debates, social media, and at the grassroots level. So, if BJP sticks to Soft Hindutva and addresses the issue of Tamils with more sensitivity, they can gain a foothold in TN for sure. I don’t want BJP to lose Hindutuva votes to ADMK or Rajini.
Mark my words in 2024, TN LS polls would be Pro Modi vs Anti Modi .
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